橡胶生产  ; 规模效益  ; 非线性回归

以海南农垦国有农场的橡胶开割株数和胶工干胶年产量为变量，基于1998-2007年86个橡胶农场的面板数据，应用非线性回归分析橡胶生产规模。结果表明：海南农垦橡胶生产存在非线性规模效益；当前海南农垦橡胶农场的最佳规模是橡胶开割面积达到2 363.64 hm2。

Product scale  ; product efficiency  ; unlined regression

Basing on the data about the scale of nature rubber product and the production of average workers in 86 farms，and using the 10 unlined model to translate，at last choosing the best regression estimated result，the relation about scale and efficiency in nature rubber production was be analyzed. The results showed that the relation about scale and efficiency was submitted the form of a converse “U”; the best scale in Hainan farm was 2 363.64 hm2 in theory.